THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND MONETARY POLICY ON IMPORT PRICE DYNAMICS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Authors

  • Karimov Shodiyor Rustamovich Master’s student of the Asia International University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55640/

Keywords:

exchange rate pass-through, import price index, monetary policy, VAR model, inflation transmission, nominal effective exchange rate, time-series econometrics, central bank policy

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between national currency policy, exchange rate dynamics, and import price inflation using a quantitative time-series econometric framework. The research focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) mechanism, through which fluctuations in the nominal effective exchange rate influence the domestic cost of imported goods. Quarterly macroeconomic data for the period 2005–2022 are analyzed using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model that includes the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), Import Price Index (IPI), policy interest rate, and Producer Price Index (PPI). Stationarity tests, lag-length selection criteria, and impulse response analysis are applied to ensure methodological robustness. The results allow for the estimation of both short-run and long-run pass-through effects and provide insight into the role of monetary policy in moderating inflationary pressures caused by currency depreciation. The findings contribute to a better understanding of exchange rate transmission channels and offer policy-relevant implications for inflation-targeting frameworks in open, import-dependent economies.

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References

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Published

2026-06-07

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 6 (2026): Journal of Multidisciplinary Sciences and Innovations

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Authors retain the copyright of their manuscripts, and all Open Access articles are disseminated under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC-BY), which licenses unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is appropriately cited. The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, and so forth in this publication, even if not specifically identified, does not imply that these names are not protected by the relevant laws and regulations.

How to Cite

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND MONETARY POLICY ON IMPORT PRICE DYNAMICS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS. (2026). Journal of Multidisciplinary Sciences and Innovations, 5(6), 359-363. https://doi.org/10.55640/

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