Understanding Ebola Virus Spread Through Sensitivity Analysis: Critical Parameters and Control Measures

Abstract

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a highly infectious and often fatal illness that poses severe public health challenges, particularly in regions with limited healthcare infrastructure. Effective control of Ebola outbreaks requires a deep understanding of the factors that drive the spread of the virus. This study conducts a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the dynamical spread of EVD using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model to identify the parameters that have the most significant impact on the disease's transmission dynamics.

The SEIR model, widely recognized for its ability to capture the progression of infectious diseases, is employed to simulate the spread of Ebola under various scenarios. Key parameters analyzed include the transmission rate (β), which dictates how quickly the virus spreads from person to person; the incubation period (σ), reflecting the time it takes for exposed individuals to become infectious; the recovery rate (γ), indicating the speed at which infected individuals either recover or succumb to the disease; and intervention effectiveness, such as quarantine measures and contact reduction strategies. Both local and global sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the relative influence of these parameters on critical epidemic outcomes, such as the total number of infections, peak infection rate, and the time to peak infection.