METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE SHADOW ECONOMY: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE AND MODERN APPROACHES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55640/Keywords:
shadow economy, assessment methodology, MIMIC model, currency demand approach, informal sector, tax burden, fiscal policy, digital economy, transition economy, macroeconomic analysis, budget policyAbstract
This article presents a systematic comparative analysis of the principal methodological approaches employed in assessing the shadow economy, encompassing direct survey-based methods, indirect macroeconomic indicator methods, and model-based econometric approaches — most notably the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model and the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) framework. Drawing on empirical evidence from Italy, Brazil, South Korea, and Estonia, the study examines how rigorous measurement methodology underpins effective policy intervention. Special attention is given to the applicability of these approaches to transition economies, with a particular focus on Uzbekistan. The findings indicate that no single method achieves universal accuracy; rather, an integrated approach combining the MIMIC model with the currency demand method yields the most robust estimates in developing and transition country contexts. The study also identifies emerging methodological challenges posed by digitalization and cryptocurrency transactions, which render conventional indicators increasingly insufficient. Practical policy recommendations are advanced for strengthening shadow economy monitoring in Uzbekistan, including the establishment of a dedicated statistical unit, harmonization with OECD and IMF standards, and targeted formalization incentives.
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Chapters in Collected Volumes:
[12] Kuznetsov, A. (2012). The Informal Economy in CIS Countries: Causes and Consequences. In: Current Problems in Economic Science. Moscow: Ekonomicheskoye Prosveshcheniye, pp. 215–240. [In Russian]
[14] Mustafoyev, Sh. (2018). Institutional Factors in the Formation of the Informal Sector in Uzbekistan. Economics and Innovative Technologies: Scientific Electronic Journal. Tashkent: TashSIU, No. 3, pp. 45–57. [In Uzbek]
National Standards (State Standards):
[DTS-1] State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2021). Methodological Guidelines on the System of National Accounts (DTS Uz 1.3:2021). Tashkent: SSC Publishing, 94 p. [In Uzbek]
[DTS-2] State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2022). Methodological Handbook on Measuring the Non-Observed Economy (DTS Uz 2.1:2022). Tashkent: SSC Publishing, 56 p. [In Uzbek]
Legal and Regulatory Documents:
[QH-1] Tax Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan (30 December 2019, No. 599). Latest revision: 1 January 2024. Tashkent. Available at: https://lex.uz/docs/4674095 [Accessed: 10 March 2024].
[QH-2] Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On Measures to Improve Tax Administration and Optimize Tax Incentives" (3 January 2023, No. PF-6). Available at: https://lex.uz [Accessed: 15 February 2024].
[QH-3] Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On Measures to Reduce Informal Employment and Improve the Employment System" (15 June 2022, No. 323). Tashkent. Available at: https://lex.uz [Accessed: 20 February 2024].
Additional References:
[8] Feige, E. L. (1979). How Big is the Irregular Economy? Challenge, 22, 5–13.
[9] Gutmann, P. M. (1977). The Subterranean Economy. Financial Analysts Journal, 33(6), 26–34.
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