NATURAL AND MECHANICAL POPULATION DYNAMICS: GIS-BASED CARTOGRAPHIC APPROACH IN UZBEKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55640/Keywords:
population dynamics; GIS; flow map; migration; Uzbekistan; PDI; cartographic analysis; mechanical movement; natural increaseAbstract
This study presents a GIS-based cartographic methodology for the integrated analysis of natural and mechanical population dynamics in Uzbekistan. Natural population change was quantified using crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR), while mechanical movement was assessed through internal inter-regional migration flows and international emigration patterns. A composite Population Dynamics Index (PDI) was developed by normalising and weighting the two components, enabling comparative spatial analysis across Uzbekistan's 14 administrative regions and the Republic of Karakalpakstan. Flow maps were constructed in a GIS environment using open-access demographic datasets sourced from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), the World Bank, and the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (UzStat). Results indicate that migration flows from Uzbekistan are predominantly directed toward Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, driven by labour demand and wage differentials. Internally, the Fergana Valley and Tashkent agglomeration function as dominant migration attractors, while southern and western regions exhibit net emigration. The PDI reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in demographic vitality, with Tashkent city achieving the highest score (PDI = 0.82) and Surkhandarya the lowest (PDI = 0.29). This research demonstrates that combining natural and mechanical indicators within a unified geospatial index provides a robust framework for demographic monitoring in data-scarce environments.
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