FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN
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One of the most important factors of economic development is, undoubtedly, energy. Efficient use of energy sources is among the essential tasks we must implement in all areas of life. Using econometric models to assess the role of energy sources in economy of a country helps evaluate their significance in energy distribution, household consumption, and the technological development of enterprises. For this purpose, in our article, we constructed an ARDL model to investigate the impact of energy consumption on economic growth in Uzbekistan. Both long-term and short-term effects were calculated, and forecast values were obtained. According to the AIC and BIC criteria, the model that best fits the collected data was identified, and the ARDL(2, 2, 0, 0) model was selected as the optimal model. The results of the bounds test indicated the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship. The consumption of petroleum products has a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth (p < 0.01), while electricity generation has a positive effect (p < 0.05). Although the natural gas consumption variable shows a negative effect in the long run, it is not statistically significant in the short-run dynamics. The conclusion drawn from the results is that promoting electricity generation and reducing dependence on petroleum products in energy policy will contribute to stabilizing economic growth.
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